[Secret] Response to the Oil Embargo Part 2: Retaliation, Covert and Chaotic
While overt operations will play a role in the retaliation, some more covert ones are needed. For these more... illegal... operations, we will have to take a different approach. North Korea: Cyberwar, Inc. North Korea has a well-established cyberwar capability and has recently begun selling its services to third parties. One of those third parties is about to become us, and we're going to buy out the entire shop, consisting of thousands of highly trained North Korean hackers. Are they the best, no, of course not--they are, after all, still North Korean. They certainly aren't as good as what we have in-house, even though they're surprisingly skilled all things considered. But they're extra talent, and talent with no official connections to China, and that's what counts here. At whatever exorbitant price that North Korea charges [we've budgeted up to $500 million, and they will get to keep whatever they steal] we're siccing every trained hacker they have on what we view as the mastermind behind these plots, the United Arab Emirates [M: Even though we don't know the contents of the closed diplo, it's not hard to come to that conclusion given that Saudi Arabia is in a civil war, the UAE leads the GCC which is leading the embargo, and it has rejected our peace offerings and stated that we are an existential threat--also, assaulting the UAE is likely to spook the other participants who are in a much more frail situation]. Attacks will aim to be diverse and encompass the entire spectrum, with one exception, which we will do. Chinese experts will provide advice and limited intelligence and cyber-reconnaissance, but will not openly involve themselves in the operations, taking especial care to ensure that they don't touch the code the North Koreans are working on. We will maintain only a very high-level management, leaving precise means, targets, and so on to the North Koreans. In addition, we'll ask the North Koreans to recruit criminal hacker groups across the globe to join on to this effort, with the North Koreans receiving additional payouts for every other criminal hacking group they bring onboard that has been verified by Chinese intelligence as actually existing [we don't trust the North Koreans that much, especially when money is on the line]. Targets are the following, in order of priority: UAE Foreign Exchange Reserves and Sovereign Wealth Fund: By far the most valuable target on the list for North Korea, the UAE's forex reserves are worth about $100 billion, and the sovereign wealth funds of the Emirates are valued at as much as $1 trillion. North Korean hackers will launch an all-out assault aiming to steal as much of this money as possible, destroying it if they must but, we imagine, preferably transferring it to North Korean accounts. Attacks via SWIFT like those conducted by North Korea in 2015-16 are possible--those attacks amounted to hundreds of millions of dollars in losses. We doubt that North Korea will be able to steal that much of this pile, especially given the fact that the UAE has an army of ex-Western cyberwarriors of its own, but even a relatively small quantity would be a significant psychological injury and would degrade global trust in the UAE. Vital Infrastructure: North Korea will target key pieces of infrastructure in the UAE. In particular, they will target the following facilities and attempt to force them offline. Even though the individual attacks won't do much damage, the cumulative impact will scare the public, damage investor confidence, and drive money out of the UAE.
Dubai International Airport
All 8 desalination plants, the only source of potable water in the UAE [top target]
UAE High-speed rail [as this system uses Chinese software the North Koreans will happen to find a copy of the source code to work this one over]
Barakah Nuclear Power Plant [as this system uses South Korean software North Korea may have added experience with it]
Ruwais Refinery, capacity 400,000 barrels of oil per day, the largest in the UAE
Influential Figures And Government Officials: North Korean hackers will also target the personal devices of government officials and influential figures in the UAE, especially politicians, military commanders, and media types. They will then leak anything remotely incriminating to the global media, possibly via Wikileaks or another such site of ill repute. In addition, for particularly important government officials, North Korea will be commissioned to produce deepfakes with which it will flood social media. These will mostly focus on baseless conspiracy theories and personal slanders, for instance, catching a top official on mike confessing to being a devil-worshiper, or portraying a popular imam as being with Western prostitutes. It is hoped that these operations will cause enough domestic trouble in the UAE that they will concede on the point of the oil embargo. If nothing else, though, they should keep the UAE distracted while we move elsewhere.
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